The College Football Playoff quarterfinals kick off tonight when the Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2) take on the Boise State Broncos (12-1). Both teams are in rare territory, with Penn State not being on this stage since the early 1990’s and Boise State being on it for the first time in program history.
Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
Date: Tuesday – December 31
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Network: ESPN
Line: Penn State -11.5, O/U: 53.5
The Irish Breakdown team made predictions for this playoff matchup.
BRYAN DRISKELL, OWNER
Prediction: Penn State 28, Boise State 17
This is a really good Boise State football team with the nation’s best player in running back Ashton Jeanty. The Broncos have been outstanding all season, and they were more impressive in a matchup against Oregon than Penn State was in their matchup against the Ducks. Although the Broncos are capable of winning this game I think Penn State has a bit too much balance. Boise State’s pass defense has been an issue at times this season, and that will make defending All-American tight end Tyler Warren a problem. The Nittany Lions will need to get their run game going as well, which will take some pressure off quarterback Drew Allar.
Boise State will look to continue riding Jeanty in hopes of earning the program’s biggest win. Beating the Nittany Lions would be even bigger than their Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma after the 2006 season. I think the Broncos will be able to have some early success on the ground, but eventually quarterback Maddux Madsen will need to make big plays to win the game. I don’t think he will be able to do it for four quarters, and the Nittany Lions will pull away late.
VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST
Prediction: Penn State 27, Boise State 17
Am I a believer in Penn State? They have proven me wrong two games in a row. They went score for score with Oregon, which I did not see coming, and took SMU to the woodshed defensively. I am not sold their offense can win another big game but Boise’s offense is not exactly world beaters. The Broncos rank in the triple digits in every passing defensive category there is but Penn State does not light the world on fire through the air either. Unfortunately for Boise St I think this one simply comes down to Jimmy’s and Joe’s and not the X’s and O’s. Penn State has some dudes that Boise St. just does not have. I think the Broncos can get inside the spread and cover but I just do not see them winning outright.
SEAN STIRES, STAFF WRITER
Prediction: Penn State 31, Boise State 17
Penn State hasn’t faced a running back like Ashton Jeanty, but Jeanty and Boise State haven’t faced a defense like Penn State’s. Jeanty’s lowest output of the season was his 129-yard regular season performance in the regular season against UNLV. The Nittany Lions rank No. 4 in total defense and No. 7 against the run. Their defensive front is their strength, which SMU found out in the first round. The Broncos are just too one-dimensional to muster enough offense.
TREVOR TROWBRIDGE, STAFF WRITER
Prediction: Penn State 21, Boise State 17
Despite what the spread is, I think this will be a much closer game than what some anticipate. It’s no secret what Boise State plans to do on offense, and no team has been able to stop it yet. This game comes down to matchups. Will Penn State’s defense be able to stop Jeanty? Can the Boise State defense stop Tyler Warren, another player who teams have yet to stop? In the end, I think the size and experience of Penn State will win them the day, but this will be a close game.
NICK KREMER, RECRUITING ANALYST
Prediction: Penn State 28, Boise State 24
Penn State has the overall advantage in talent and depth, but Boise State will have the best player on the field in Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty has had over 125 rushing yards in every game this season, and I expect that streak to continue in this matchup. Look for Jeanty and the Boise offense to keep this one close throughout the game, but Penn State’s defense comes through with some big 4th quarter stops to secure the win for the Nittany Lions.
ANDREW McDONOUGH, IB CONTRIBUTOR
Prediction: Penn State 31, Boise State 20
I wanted to pick Boise State as soon as this matchup was set, but after diving into the numbers, I just don’t see much of a path to victory for the Broncos. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty has had one of the greatest running back seasons in college football history, but he’ll be going up against the best rush defense that he has faced this season. The Nittany Lions rank seventh in the nation against the run and have given up just 7 rushing touchdowns in 14 games. Now, Jeanty has put up numbers against everyone he has faced (197 yards and 3 touchdowns against Oregon, for example), but Penn State will be able to limit him enough to force Boise State into more third down passing situations than the Broncos normally face.
It’s no surprise that Boise State ranks 6th nationally in third down conversion rate (49.9%) but the Nittany Lions give up just 33.5% of third down conversions. Boise State will need QB Maddux Madsen to play his best game of the season in this one, and that’s a lot to ask of a quarterback who has not been asked to do a ton this year. The Broncos are 92nd in the country in pass plays of over 20 yards, 115th in pass plays of over 30 yards, and rank 82nd in the country in pass attempts per game.
STAFF RESULTS
Bryan – 47-16
Sean – 45-18
Nick – 45-18
Andrew – 44-19
Vince – 43-20
Trevor – 43-20
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