Why the Edmonton Oilers’ third line is a productive and underrated unit

Ask an Edmonton Oilers fan of a certain age to name the all-time best third line in team history, and you’re likely to hear about Todd Marchant at centre, Ethan Moreau on left wing and Mike Grier on the right side. That trio was rugged, skilled and responsible.

Older fans may suggest the 1990 Kid Line of Martin Gelinas, Joe Murphy and Adam Graves should win the honour due to the team winning the Stanley Cup shortly after they were put together by then-coach John Muckler.

Third lines in the last 20 years come and go, winning and losing momentum quickly. Does anyone remember Warren Foegele–Derek Ryan-Zack Kassian? That trio was wildly effective in the fall of 2021 but collapsed due to needs on other lines. It was scraped for parts, just like most third lines on a team.

The problem for NHL coaching staffs is depth. Few teams have Nos. 7-9 forwards who can sustain excellence on a line.

This year’s Oilers appear to be the exception to the rule.

Genesis

During the 2023-24 regular season, wingers Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown played significant minutes together at five-on-five with various centres.

Natural Stat Trick’s line tool has the two men with a 58 percent goal share and 51 percent expected goals at five-on-five during the regular season. This despite a difficult season for Brown, who was coming back from a major injury.

In the playoffs, Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch relied on the two men when short-handed. Janmark-Brown had a 3-1 goal edge on the penalty kill over almost 29 minutes for Edmonton, an amazing run that was borderline unfathomable.

At five-on-five during the postseason, the two men played with centre Adam Henrique and enjoyed a 2-1 goal share in 53 minutes. The expected-goals percentage was below 50 percent but the trio did have more high-danger chances than surrendered.

This season, that trio has been together often, totalling 110 minutes in 24 games (4:34 minutes per game). The goal share (50 percent) and expected goal share (59 percent) are strong, confirming Edmonton is a team with three lines that can be trusted.

It’s a veteran group with plenty of speed and veteran savvy. They’re also playing enough together to be considered a real line, rare in the era of forward “pairs” that often check down from player to player as the third man.

No. 3 lines, last five seasons

How does this year’s third line (Henrique, Janmark, Brown) compare? The key indicator is time on ice per game (trios don’t stay together long as you look down the depth chart).

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

It’s a long run over most of seven seasons for Oilers’ No. 3 lines. Plenty of line shuffles make it difficult to find the logic. The days of being able to list an entire third line (Wayne Carleton and Eddie Westfall with Derek Sanderson for the Boston Bruins in 1970) is a thing of the distant past.

There is some sustain recently for the Oilers on the third line and the ice time increase for the current line is obvious when comparing third lines from the past.

Both Janmark and Brown are in their second seasons with the third line on the depth chart, with Henrique replacing Sam Carrick from last season. Carrick was a deadline addition but played heavy minutes with Janmark-Brown and that trio emerged as the most utilized in a small period of (regular season) time.

For the record, the wingers on the lines above were Milan Lucic and Kassian centred by Kyle Brodziak in 2018-19; Jujhar Khaira and Josh Archibald between Riley Sheahan in 2019-20; in the pandemic season, Khaira moved to the middle with wingers Tyler Ennis and Josh Archibald; In 2021-22, Kassian and Foegele were the wingers on the Ryan McLeod line. Derek Ryan played centre in 2022-23 with Devin Shore and Klim Kostin; Janmark and Brown have been the third-line wingers for the last two seasons, with Carrick (2023-24) and Henrique (2024-25) in the middle.

Quality of competition

The big test for a third line is quality of competition. The higher the quality, the more relief given to the rest of the depth chart. Using the brilliant Puck IQ, how well does Janmark-Brown (and this season Henrique) perform? Here are time on ice game totals and Dangerous Fenwick (smart Corsi, like expected goal share) for the Oilers over the years examined above.

Note: The lines above are the most common third lines. Below is a list of the most active third-line centres over the seasons being discussed. There is some overlap, but not all No. 3 lines and No. 3 centres aligned over these years.

All numbers five-on-five via Puck IQ

McLeod had the look of a player who was going to fill the role for a long time, but ran into some poor luck (his Dangerous Fenwick percentage was 56 in 2023-24) and the Oilers checked down to (two deadline pickups) Henrique and Carrick.

Ironically, Henrique is having fantastic scoring luck but the Dangerous Fenwick percentage (41) is far lower.